The full 2026 FBS regular season, decoded by the HefML stacked ensemble — win expectations, the projected board, and where the model disagrees with the public line. Projections, not betting advice.
HefML is a stacked three-model ensemble. CFBone (elastic-net), Blue (gradient boosting), and Gryphon (Elo + special teams) each produce a win probability, spread, and total; a meta-model blends them on out-of-fold holdouts and applies a learned home/away bias correction.
Inputs: walk-forward Elo, opponent-adjusted efficiency, QB on/off ratings, transfer-portal net & churn, coaching-cohort signals, rest, travel, talent, returning production (Connelly 2026), and SP+. Spreads carry favorite-size-scaled uncertainty.
Bar = HefML projected wins (FCS games included). Gold dot = SP+ implied wins (same scale as the bar). A dot right of the bar means SP+ expects more wins than HefML's schedule-based projection — often where edges live.
| # | Team | Conf | Elo | SP+ | Exp W | SP+ Exp W | ΔW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | SEC | 1981 | +25.5 | 10.3 | 8.7 | -1.7 |
| 2 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 1949 | +31.8 | 9.6 | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Indiana | Big Ten | 1944 | +24.5 | 10.4 | 8.6 | -1.8 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 1924 | +25.8 | 10.8 | 8.7 | -2.1 |
| 5 | Oregon | Big Ten | 1898 | +28.3 | 9.4 | 8.9 | -0.5 |
| 6 | Miami | ACC | 1895 | +21.0 | 10.2 | 8.3 | -1.9 |
| 7 | Texas | SEC | 1890 | +23.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | +0.6 |
| 8 | Alabama | SEC | 1884 | +18.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | -1.3 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | SEC | 1884 | +15.9 | 8.0 | 7.8 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 1840 | +23.1 | 10.1 | 8.5 | -1.7 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | SEC | 1835 | +20.3 | 7.4 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Utah | Big 12 | 1816 | +11.9 | 9.3 | 7.5 | -1.9 |
| 13 | BYU | Big 12 | 1795 | +15.5 | 8.9 | 7.8 | -1.1 |
| 14 | USC | Big Ten | 1793 | +16.8 | 8.1 | 7.9 | -0.2 |
| 15 | LSU | SEC | 1792 | +20.2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Tennessee | SEC | 1780 | +16.0 | 8.4 | 7.8 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Missouri | SEC | 1780 | +14.8 | 7.4 | 7.7 | +0.3 |
| 18 | Iowa | Big Ten | 1775 | +13.6 | 8.1 | 7.6 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Penn State | Big Ten | 1774 | +15.7 | 9.0 | 7.8 | -1.2 |
| 20 | Oklahoma | SEC | 1767 | +17.2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | +0.9 |
| 21 | Michigan | Big Ten | 1755 | +16.1 | 7.0 | 7.8 | +0.8 |
| 22 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 1749 | +10.0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | +1.0 |
| 23 | SMU | ACC | 1745 | +10.9 | 8.8 | 7.4 | -1.5 |
| 24 | Florida | SEC | 1743 | +14.9 | 6.2 | 7.7 | +1.6 |
| 25 | Washington | Big Ten | 1739 | +14.5 | 7.0 | 7.7 | +0.7 |
Expected wins summed over every game on the schedule, including non-FBS opponents (shown as "Buy"). Excluding those understates totals by roughly one win for most Power-conference teams.
For every game with a market line posted this week, HefML's home line beside the public number, and the gap between the two.
| Wk | Matchup | HefML | Public | Δ | Lean | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sacramento State vs Ohio | +24.2 | +14.5 | -9.7 | Away -14.5 | 66% |
| 7 | UTSA vs Navy | -15.7 | -6.5 | +9.2 | Home -6.5 | 68% |
| 7 | Houston vs Oklahoma State | -12.2 | -4.2 | +8.0 | Home -4.2 | 66% |
| 7 | Purdue vs Washington | +4.5 | -3.0 | -7.5 | Away +3.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern | -3.2 | +3.8 | +7.0 | Home +3.8 | 68% |
| 7 | West Virginia vs Cincinnati | +5.1 | -1.5 | -6.6 | Away +1.5 | 61% |
| 7 | UCLA vs Wisconsin | -9.8 | -3.5 | +6.3 | Home -3.5 | 64% |
| 7 | Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech | -3.3 | -9.5 | -6.2 | Away +9.5 | 68% |
| 7 | Duke vs North Carolina | -9.7 | -3.5 | +6.2 | Home -3.5 | 63% |
| 7 | UAB vs East Carolina | +10.6 | +4.5 | -6.1 | Away -4.5 | 59% |
| 7 | Middle Tennessee vs Delaware | -3.1 | +2.8 | +5.8 | Home +2.8 | 62% |
| 7 | Temple vs Charlotte | -16.7 | -22.2 | -5.6 | Away +22.2 | 66% |
| 7 | Oregon vs Nebraska | -12.5 | -7.0 | +5.5 | Home -7.0 | 60% |
| 7 | Oregon State vs Washington State | -12.6 | -18.0 | -5.4 | Away +18.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Wyoming vs Northern Illinois | -12.8 | -7.5 | +5.3 | Home -7.5 | 58% |
| 7 | South Florida vs Kent State | -24.8 | -19.8 | +5.0 | Home -19.8 | 61% |
| 7 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | +2.2 | +7.0 | +4.8 | Home +7.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Tennessee vs Alabama | +2.3 | +7.0 | +4.7 | Home +7.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Oklahoma vs Kentucky | -11.2 | -6.8 | +4.4 | Home -6.8 | 60% |
| 7 | Georgia vs Auburn | -22.8 | -18.5 | +4.3 | Home -18.5 | 57% |
| 7 | UL Monroe vs Louisiana Tech | +18.5 | +14.5 | -4.0 | Away -14.5 | 56% |
| 7 | Army vs Florida Atlantic | +0.9 | -3.0 | -3.9 | Away +3.0 | 59% |
| 7 | James Madison vs Georgia State | -15.5 | -11.8 | +3.7 | Home -11.8 | 55% |
| 7 | Indiana vs Ohio State | -0.6 | +3.0 | +3.6 | Home +3.0 | 60% |
| 7 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -13.6 | -10.0 | +3.6 | Home -10.0 | 55% |
| 7 | Texas vs Florida | -13.6 | -10.0 | +3.6 | Home -10.0 | 55% |
| 7 | Boston College vs Pittsburgh | +9.8 | +6.2 | -3.6 | Away -6.2 | 54% |
| 7 | BYU vs Notre Dame | +6.7 | +10.2 | +3.5 | Home +10.2 | 65% |
| 7 | Kansas State vs Kansas | -3.1 | -6.5 | -3.4 | Away +6.5 | 59% |
| 7 | Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky | +4.6 | +1.2 | -3.3 | Away -1.2 | 55% |
| 7 | Vanderbilt vs Arkansas | -9.6 | -6.2 | +3.3 | Home -6.2 | 56% |
| 7 | Air Force vs UNLV | +4.4 | +1.2 | -3.2 | Away -1.2 | 55% |
| 7 | Colorado vs Utah | +19.3 | +16.2 | -3.1 | Away -16.2 | 55% |
| 7 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -6.3 | -3.2 | +3.0 | Home -3.2 | 55% |
| 7 | Miami vs Florida State | -23.9 | -21.0 | +2.9 | Home -21.0 | 56% |
| 7 | Texas Tech vs Arizona State | -16.9 | -14.0 | +2.9 | Home -14.0 | 53% |
| 7 | Tulane vs Memphis | +3.6 | +6.5 | +2.9 | Home +6.5 | 60% |
| 7 | SMU vs Virginia | -11.2 | -8.8 | +2.5 | — | — |
| 7 | Michigan vs Penn State | -4.2 | -6.2 | -2.1 | — | — |
| 7 | Michigan State vs Northwestern | +10.5 | +8.5 | -2.0 | — | — |
| 7 | Central Michigan vs Western Michigan | +8.8 | +7.0 | -1.8 | — | — |
| 7 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico | +12.4 | +14.2 | +1.8 | — | — |
| 7 | Louisiana vs Troy | -6.0 | -4.2 | +1.7 | — | — |
| 7 | San Diego State vs Fresno State | +9.7 | +8.2 | -1.5 | — | — |
| 7 | North Dakota State vs Nevada | -14.3 | -15.8 | -1.4 | — | — |
| 7 | Missouri State vs Kennesaw State | +1.9 | +3.2 | +1.4 | — | — |
| 7 | Syracuse vs Louisville | +14.8 | +13.5 | -1.3 | — | — |
| 7 | Baylor vs TCU | -5.3 | -6.5 | -1.2 | — | — |
| 7 | California vs Wake Forest | +10.9 | +9.8 | -1.1 | — | — |
| 7 | Rice vs Tulsa | +5.3 | +4.2 | -1.0 | — | — |
| 7 | Bowling Green vs Ball State | -8.2 | -7.2 | +1.0 | — | — |
| 7 | Ole Miss vs Missouri | -5.1 | -6.0 | -0.9 | — | — |
| 7 | UTEP vs San José State | +7.7 | +8.5 | +0.8 | — | — |
| 7 | Maryland vs Rutgers | -3.8 | -4.5 | -0.7 | — | — |
| 7 | Eastern Michigan vs Toledo | +4.8 | +5.2 | +0.4 | — | — |
| 7 | LSU vs Mississippi State | -11.6 | -11.2 | +0.4 | — | — |
| 7 | Jacksonville State vs Florida International | -3.4 | -3.0 | +0.4 | — | — |
| 7 | Coastal Carolina vs App State | +1.6 | +1.2 | -0.3 | — | — |
| 7 | Texas State vs Colorado State | -13.5 | -13.2 | +0.3 | — | — |
Home-team lines (negative = home favored). Δ = HefML home margin − public home margin; positive means HefML is higher on the home team than the market. Lean shows only where the gap clears the vig-aware threshold (2.5 pts). Cover = the model’s empirical cover probability for the leaned side, from the out-of-fold spread distribution — not an ATS record.
The saved poll artifact still ends at 2025 week 16. Rebuild poll_model.rds (Rscript hefml_poll_model.R) to load the 2026 preseason AP vs merit table.
| 1 | Dell McGee Georgia State · yr 3 | 76 |
| 2 | Phil Longo Sam Houston · yr 2 | 65 |
| 3 | Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts · yr 2 | 59 |
| 4 | Derek Mason Middle Tennessee · yr 3 | 50 |
| 5 | Bryant Vincent UL Monroe · yr 3 | 49 |
| 6 | Tim Albin Charlotte · yr 2 | 49 |
| 7 | Ken Niumatalolo San José State · yr 3 | 44 |
| 8 | Luke Fickell Wisconsin · yr 5 | 44 |
| 9 | Mike Uremovich Ball State · yr 2 | 44 |
| 10 | Alex Mortensen UAB · yr 2 | 42 |
| Wk | Home | Away | Proj Score | Spread | Win% | Total | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Air Force | UNLV | 23–27 | -4.4 | 40% | 50 | UNLV |
| 7 | Army | Florida Atlantic | 26–27 | -0.9 | 54% | 53 | Army |
| 7 | BYU | Notre Dame | 22–29 | -6.7 | 40% | 51 | Notre Dame |
| 7 | Baylor | TCU | 29–23 | +5.3 | 64% | 52 | Baylor |
| 7 | Boston College | Pittsburgh | 21–30 | -9.8 | 29% | 51 | Pittsburgh |
| 7 | Bowling Green | Ball State | 29–21 | +8.2 | 68% | 51 | Bowling Green |
| 7 | Buffalo | Massachusetts | 28–22 | +6.3 | 64% | 51 | Buffalo |
| 7 | California | Wake Forest | 20–31 | -10.9 | 28% | 51 | Wake Forest |
| 7 | Central Michigan | Western Michigan | 21–30 | -8.8 | 29% | 50 | Western Michigan |
| 7 | Clemson FCS | Charleston Southern | — | +27.6 | 97% | — | Clemson |
| 7 | Coastal Carolina | App State | 26–28 | -1.6 | 46% | 54 | App State |
| 7 | Colorado | Utah | 17–36 | -19.3 | 11% | 52 | Utah |
| 7 | Duke | North Carolina | 30–21 | +9.7 | 77% | 51 | Duke |
| 7 | Eastern Michigan | Toledo | 23–28 | -4.8 | 40% | 50 | Toledo |
| 7 | Georgia | Auburn | 38–15 | +22.8 | 94% | 53 | Georgia |
| 7 | Hawai'i | New Mexico | 19–31 | -12.4 | 21% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 7 | Houston | Oklahoma State | 32–20 | +12.2 | 83% | 51 | Houston |
| 7 | Indiana | Ohio State | 25–25 | +0.6 | 54% | 50 | Indiana |
| 7 | Jacksonville State | Florida International | 27–24 | +3.4 | 58% | 51 | Jacksonville State |
| 7 | James Madison | Georgia State | 35–20 | +15.5 | 83% | 55 | James Madison |
| 7 | Kansas State | Kansas | 27–24 | +3.1 | 59% | 51 | Kansas State |
| 7 | LSU | Mississippi State | 32–21 | +11.6 | 78% | 53 | LSU |
| 7 | Louisiana | Troy | 30–24 | +6.0 | 64% | 54 | Louisiana |
| 7 | Maryland | Rutgers | 27–23 | +3.8 | 59% | 50 | Maryland |
| 7 | Miami | Florida State | 38–14 | +23.9 | 94% | 51 | Miami |
| 7 | Miami (OH) | Akron | 32–18 | +13.6 | 83% | 51 | Miami (OH) |
| 7 | Michigan | Penn State | 27–23 | +4.2 | 59% | 50 | Michigan |
| 7 | Michigan State | Northwestern | 20–30 | -10.5 | 21% | 50 | Northwestern |
| 7 | Middle Tennessee | Delaware | 27–24 | +3.1 | 49% | 52 | Delaware |
| 7 | Missouri State | Kennesaw State | 25–27 | -1.9 | 46% | 52 | Kennesaw State |
| 7 | North Dakota State | Nevada | 32–18 | +14.3 | 83% | 50 | North Dakota State |
| 7 | Oklahoma | Kentucky | 32–21 | +11.2 | 77% | 53 | Oklahoma |
| 7 | Old Dominion | Georgia Southern | 28–25 | +3.2 | 54% | 54 | Old Dominion |
| 7 | Ole Miss | Missouri | 29–24 | +5.1 | 59% | 53 | Ole Miss |
| 7 | Oregon | Nebraska | 31–19 | +12.5 | 78% | 50 | Oregon |
| 7 | Oregon State | Washington State | 33–20 | +12.6 | 77% | 53 | Oregon State |
| 7 | Purdue | Washington | 23–27 | -4.5 | 40% | 50 | Washington |
| 7 | Rice | Tulsa | 24–29 | -5.3 | 40% | 53 | Tulsa |
| 7 | SMU | Virginia | 31–20 | +11.2 | 77% | 51 | SMU |
| 7 | Sacramento State | Ohio | 13–37 | -24.2 | 6% | 51 | Ohio |
| 7 | Sam Houston | Western Kentucky | 24–29 | -4.6 | 46% | 53 | Western Kentucky |
| 7 | San Diego State | Fresno State | 22–32 | -9.7 | 29% | 53 | Fresno State |
| 7 | South Florida | Kent State | 38–13 | +24.8 | 93% | 50 | South Florida |
| 7 | Southern Miss | Arkansas State | 26–28 | -2.2 | 46% | 54 | Arkansas State |
| 7 | Stanford FCS | Elon | — | +17.9 | 91% | — | Stanford |
| 7 | Syracuse | Louisville | 18–33 | -14.8 | 16% | 51 | Louisville |
| 7 | Temple | Charlotte | 34–18 | +16.7 | 83% | 52 | Temple |
| 7 | Tennessee | Alabama | 25–28 | -2.3 | 46% | 53 | Alabama |
| 7 | Texas | Florida | 33–19 | +13.6 | 83% | 53 | Texas |
| 7 | Texas A&M FCS | The Citadel | — | +29.8 | 98% | — | Texas A&M |
| 7 | Texas State | Colorado State | 34–21 | +13.5 | 83% | 55 | Texas State |
| 7 | Texas Tech | Arizona State | 35–18 | +16.9 | 87% | 53 | Texas Tech |
| 7 | Tulane | Memphis | 25–29 | -3.6 | 40% | 54 | Memphis |
| 7 | UAB | East Carolina | 21–32 | -10.6 | 29% | 54 | East Carolina |
| 7 | UCLA | Wisconsin | 30–20 | +9.8 | 74% | 50 | UCLA |
| 7 | UL Monroe | Louisiana Tech | 18–37 | -18.5 | 13% | 55 | Louisiana Tech |
| 7 | UTEP | San José State | 21–29 | -7.7 | 32% | 50 | San José State |
| 7 | UTSA | Navy | 35–19 | +15.7 | 83% | 54 | UTSA |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | Arkansas | 31–21 | +9.6 | 77% | 52 | Vanderbilt |
| 7 | Virginia Tech | Georgia Tech | 27–24 | +3.3 | 58% | 51 | Virginia Tech |
| 7 | West Virginia | Cincinnati | 24–29 | -5.1 | 40% | 52 | Cincinnati |
| 7 | Wyoming | Northern Illinois | 32–19 | +12.8 | 78% | 51 | Wyoming |
| 8 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 34–19 | +14.9 | 83% | 52 | Alabama |
| 8 | App State | James Madison | 19–36 | -16.3 | 13% | 55 | James Madison |
| 8 | Arizona | Iowa State | 32–20 | +11.4 | 78% | 52 | Arizona |
| 8 | Arizona State | Kansas State | 27–24 | +2.5 | 54% | 51 | Arizona State |
| 8 | Arkansas State | Georgia State | 26–28 | -2.2 | 46% | 54 | Georgia State |
| 8 | Auburn | LSU | 23–30 | -6.9 | 32% | 53 | LSU |
| 8 | Ball State | Sacramento State | 31–20 | +11.4 | 78% | 51 | Ball State |
| 8 | Buffalo | Bowling Green | 28–22 | +5.6 | 59% | 50 | Buffalo |
| 8 | Central Michigan | Miami (OH) | 23–27 | -4.4 | 40% | 50 | Miami (OH) |
| 8 | Cincinnati | Texas Tech | 20–33 | -12.9 | 21% | 52 | Texas Tech |
| 8 | Clemson | Virginia Tech | 29–22 | +6.4 | 59% | 51 | Clemson |
| 8 | Colorado State | San Diego State | 28–25 | +3.0 | 49% | 53 | San Diego State |
| 8 | Delaware | Missouri State | 28–24 | +4.4 | 64% | 52 | Delaware |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | Rice | 34–19 | +15.0 | 83% | 53 | Florida Atlantic |
| 8 | Florida International | Middle Tennessee | 31–20 | +11.2 | 78% | 52 | Florida International |
| 8 | Georgia Tech | Boston College | 31–20 | +11.3 | 77% | 51 | Georgia Tech |
| 8 | Illinois | Oregon | 18–32 | -14.7 | 16% | 50 | Oregon |
| 8 | Kansas | Baylor | 23–30 | -6.6 | 40% | 52 | Baylor |
| 8 | Kennesaw State | Liberty | 20–31 | -10.7 | 29% | 52 | Liberty |
| 8 | Kent State | Akron | 27–24 | +2.5 | 54% | 51 | Kent State |
| 8 | Kentucky | Vanderbilt | 27–24 | +3.1 | 58% | 52 | Kentucky |
| 8 | Louisiana Tech | Old Dominion | 30–25 | +4.5 | 64% | 55 | Louisiana Tech |
| 8 | Marshall | South Alabama | 27–27 | -0.5 | 49% | 54 | South Alabama |
| 8 | Memphis | East Carolina | 31–23 | +8.0 | 64% | 54 | Memphis |
| 8 | Miami | Pittsburgh | 37–15 | +21.4 | 88% | 52 | Miami |
| 8 | Michigan | Indiana | 19–31 | -11.8 | 21% | 50 | Indiana |
| 8 | Minnesota | Iowa | 20–30 | -10.5 | 29% | 50 | Iowa |
| 8 | Mississippi State | Oklahoma | 25–27 | -1.8 | 46% | 53 | Oklahoma |
| 8 | Navy | North Texas | 24–31 | -7.4 | 34% | 55 | North Texas |
| 8 | Nevada | San José State | 27–24 | +3.2 | 58% | 50 | Nevada |
| 8 | New Mexico | North Dakota State | 27–23 | +3.3 | 58% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 8 | North Carolina | Syracuse | 29–22 | +7.5 | 64% | 51 | North Carolina |
| 8 | Northern Illinois | Hawai'i | 23–28 | -5.0 | 40% | 51 | Hawai'i |
| 8 | Northwestern | Rutgers | 33–17 | +15.7 | 87% | 50 | Northwestern |
| 8 | Ohio | Eastern Michigan | 29–21 | +8.3 | 73% | 50 | Ohio |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | Colorado | 30–22 | +8.0 | 73% | 52 | Oklahoma State |
| 8 | SMU | California | 33–17 | +16.0 | 88% | 51 | SMU |
| 8 | Sam Houston | New Mexico State | 26–26 | -0.7 | 49% | 52 | New Mexico State |
| 8 | South Carolina | Tennessee | 23–30 | -6.1 | 34% | 53 | Tennessee |
| 8 | Southern Miss | Louisiana | 22–32 | -10.7 | 24% | 54 | Louisiana |
| 8 | Stanford | NC State | 22–28 | -6.0 | 34% | 51 | NC State |
| 8 | TCU | West Virginia | 32–20 | +11.3 | 77% | 52 | TCU |
| 8 | Texas | Ole Miss | 28–25 | +3.3 | 58% | 53 | Texas |
| 8 | Texas State | Utah State | 33–21 | +11.5 | 78% | 54 | Texas State |
| 8 | Toledo | Western Michigan | 26–24 | +2.7 | 54% | 50 | Toledo |
| 8 | Troy | UL Monroe | 36–18 | +17.5 | 87% | 54 | Troy |
| 8 | Tulane | UTSA | 25–28 | -3.1 | 40% | 54 | UTSA |
| 8 | Tulsa | Army | 28–25 | +2.3 | 49% | 53 | Army |
| 8 | UCF | BYU | 19–32 | -13.2 | 18% | 51 | BYU |
| 8 | UCLA | Michigan State | 36–14 | +21.4 | 93% | 50 | UCLA |
| 8 | UConn | Massachusetts | 34–17 | +17.0 | 83% | 50 | UConn |
| 8 | Utah | Houston | 30–22 | +8.3 | 74% | 51 | Utah |
| 8 | Virginia | Duke | 25–26 | -1.6 | 49% | 51 | Duke |
| 8 | Washington State | Boise State | 17–36 | -18.4 | 13% | 53 | Boise State |
| 8 | Wisconsin | USC | 20–30 | -9.1 | 32% | 50 | USC |
| 8 | Wyoming | Air Force | 24–26 | -2.5 | 46% | 50 | Air Force |
| 9 | Air Force | UConn | 24–26 | -1.7 | 54% | 50 | Air Force |
| 9 | Arkansas | Missouri | 17–35 | -18.3 | 13% | 53 | Missouri |
| 9 | BYU | Arizona State | 33–18 | +15.2 | 83% | 51 | BYU |
| 9 | Boise State | Texas State | 33–20 | +12.6 | 78% | 53 | Boise State |
| 9 | Charlotte | Tulane | 17–36 | -19.1 | 11% | 53 | Tulane |
| 9 | Cincinnati | Utah | 20–31 | -11.1 | 29% | 51 | Utah |
| 9 | Colorado | Kansas State | 22–29 | -6.7 | 40% | 51 | Kansas State |
| 9 | Duke | Boston College | 33–18 | +15.5 | 87% | 51 | Duke |
| 9 | East Carolina | Temple | 32–21 | +11.3 | 78% | 53 | East Carolina |
| 9 | Florida State | Clemson | 26–25 | +1.3 | 49% | 51 | Clemson |
| 9 | Fresno State | Oregon State | 28–25 | +3.3 | 59% | 53 | Fresno State |
| 9 | Georgia | Florida | 37–15 | +22.3 | 94% | 52 | Georgia |
| 9 | Georgia Southern | App State | 29–26 | +3.4 | 59% | 55 | Georgia Southern |
| 9 | Georgia State | Coastal Carolina | 33–22 | +11.3 | 77% | 55 | Georgia State |
| 9 | Indiana | Minnesota | 39–12 | +26.8 | 95% | 50 | Indiana |
| 9 | Iowa | Wisconsin | 30–20 | +9.5 | 77% | 50 | Iowa |
| 9 | Iowa State | Oklahoma State | 28–23 | +5.1 | 59% | 51 | Iowa State |
| 9 | James Madison | Troy | 35–19 | +16.2 | 87% | 55 | James Madison |
| 9 | Liberty | Florida International | 30–22 | +8.4 | 74% | 52 | Liberty |
| 9 | Louisville | Stanford | 38–13 | +25.2 | 94% | 51 | Louisville |
| 9 | Maryland | Illinois | 24–26 | -2.4 | 46% | 50 | Illinois |
| 9 | Memphis | Army | 34–19 | +14.7 | 78% | 53 | Memphis |
| 9 | Middle Tennessee | Kennesaw State | 26–26 | +0.6 | 49% | 52 | Kennesaw State |
| 9 | Missouri State | Sam Houston | 28–24 | +3.3 | 58% | 52 | Missouri State |
| 9 | NC State | California | 30–21 | +8.5 | 77% | 51 | NC State |
| 9 | Navy | Notre Dame | 13–40 | -27.2 | 6% | 54 | Notre Dame |
| 9 | Nebraska | Washington | 29–21 | +8.9 | 74% | 50 | Nebraska |
| 9 | New Mexico State | Jacksonville State | 21–31 | -10.2 | 29% | 52 | Jacksonville State |
| 9 | North Carolina | Miami | 15–36 | -20.5 | 11% | 51 | Miami |
| 9 | North Dakota State | UTEP | 39–11 | +28.1 | 96% | 51 | North Dakota State |
| 9 | North Texas | Florida Atlantic | 33–22 | +11.3 | 77% | 55 | North Texas |
| 9 | Oklahoma | South Carolina | 31–22 | +9.5 | 74% | 53 | Oklahoma |
| 9 | Old Dominion | Marshall | 29–25 | +3.3 | 58% | 54 | Old Dominion |
| 9 | Ole Miss | Auburn | 33–20 | +12.5 | 83% | 53 | Ole Miss |
| 9 | Oregon | Northwestern | 33–18 | +15.0 | 83% | 50 | Oregon |
| 9 | Penn State | Purdue | 32–18 | +13.2 | 78% | 50 | Penn State |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | Georgia Tech | 29–22 | +7.1 | 67% | 51 | Pittsburgh |
| 9 | Rutgers | Michigan | 16–34 | -18.0 | 16% | 50 | Michigan |
| 9 | Sacramento State | Kent State | 21–30 | -9.2 | 29% | 51 | Kent State |
| 9 | San Diego State | Washington State | 28–25 | +2.5 | 58% | 53 | San Diego State |
| 9 | San José State | New Mexico | 19–32 | -13.0 | 16% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 9 | South Alabama | Louisiana Tech | 27–26 | +1.1 | 49% | 54 | Louisiana Tech |
| 9 | South Florida | UAB | 34–18 | +16.5 | 83% | 52 | South Florida |
| 9 | Syracuse | SMU | 18–33 | -14.5 | 18% | 51 | SMU |
| 9 | TCU | Kansas | 28–24 | +4.0 | 64% | 51 | TCU |
| 9 | Texas | Mississippi State | 32–21 | +11.4 | 78% | 53 | Texas |
| 9 | Texas Tech | Arizona | 30–22 | +8.2 | 68% | 52 | Texas Tech |
| 9 | UCF | Baylor | 22–30 | -7.3 | 34% | 52 | Baylor |
| 9 | UCLA | Nevada | 42–8 | +34.0 | 96% | 50 | UCLA |
| 9 | UL Monroe | Southern Miss | 24–29 | -5.3 | 40% | 54 | Southern Miss |
| 9 | UNLV | Northern Illinois | 41–10 | +31.3 | 96% | 50 | UNLV |
| 9 | USC | Ohio State | 21–29 | -7.3 | 40% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 9 | Utah State | Colorado State | 28–25 | +3.7 | 59% | 53 | Utah State |
| 9 | Wake Forest | Virginia | 29–21 | +8.0 | 74% | 51 | Wake Forest |
| 9 | Western Kentucky | Delaware | 28–25 | +3.2 | 54% | 52 | Western Kentucky |
| 9 | Western Michigan | Bowling Green | 32–18 | +13.6 | 83% | 50 | Western Michigan |
| 10 | Akron | Ohio | 17–33 | -15.7 | 16% | 50 | Ohio |
| 10 | App State | Georgia State | 27–28 | -1.7 | 46% | 55 | Georgia State |
| 10 | Arizona | TCU | 31–20 | +11.2 | 78% | 51 | Arizona |
| 10 | Arizona State | Colorado | 31–22 | +9.3 | 77% | 52 | Arizona State |
| 10 | Arkansas State | UL Monroe | 34–19 | +15.1 | 83% | 53 | Arkansas State |
| 10 | Army | Air Force | 27–24 | +3.4 | 59% | 51 | Army |
| 10 | Auburn | Arkansas | 33–19 | +13.3 | 78% | 52 | Auburn |
| 10 | Baylor | Iowa State | 30–22 | +8.5 | 74% | 52 | Baylor |
| 10 | Boston College | Florida State | 23–28 | -5.5 | 34% | 51 | Florida State |
| 10 | Coastal Carolina | Old Dominion | 26–28 | -1.5 | 46% | 54 | Old Dominion |
| 10 | Colorado State | Boise State | 17–36 | -19.5 | 11% | 53 | Boise State |
| 10 | East Carolina | South Florida | 28–26 | +2.4 | 54% | 54 | East Carolina |
| 10 | Eastern Michigan | Central Michigan | 28–22 | +5.7 | 59% | 50 | Eastern Michigan |
| 10 | Florida | Oklahoma | 25–27 | -1.7 | 46% | 52 | Oklahoma |
| 10 | Florida Atlantic | UTSA | 24–29 | -4.9 | 40% | 53 | UTSA |
| 10 | Florida International | Missouri State | 33–19 | +13.8 | 78% | 52 | Florida International |
| 10 | Georgia Southern | Marshall | 28–25 | +3.3 | 58% | 54 | Georgia Southern |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | Louisville | 22–28 | -5.9 | 40% | 51 | Louisville |
| 10 | Houston | Cincinnati | 32–19 | +12.9 | 78% | 51 | Houston |
| 10 | Illinois | Nebraska | 22–28 | -6.7 | 32% | 50 | Nebraska |
| 10 | Jacksonville State | Sam Houston | 34–18 | +16.6 | 83% | 52 | Jacksonville State |
| 10 | Kansas | UCF | 29–23 | +5.6 | 59% | 51 | Kansas |
| 10 | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | 29–23 | +6.2 | 59% | 51 | Kansas State |
| 10 | Kennesaw State | Delaware | 27–24 | +3.1 | 58% | 52 | Kennesaw State |
| 10 | LSU | Alabama | 26–27 | -1.5 | 46% | 53 | Alabama |
| 10 | Louisiana | South Alabama | 31–24 | +7.4 | 64% | 55 | Louisiana |
| 10 | Massachusetts | Ball State | 30–20 | +9.7 | 74% | 51 | Massachusetts |
| 10 | Miami (OH) | Buffalo | 29–21 | +8.3 | 68% | 50 | Miami (OH) |
| 10 | Michigan | Michigan State | 35–15 | +19.2 | 88% | 50 | Michigan |
| 10 | Middle Tennessee | Western Kentucky | 27–25 | +2.3 | 49% | 52 | Western Kentucky |
| 10 | Minnesota | UCLA | 22–28 | -6.4 | 34% | 50 | UCLA |
| 10 | Mississippi State | Vanderbilt | 28–23 | +4.8 | 59% | 52 | Mississippi State |
| 10 | Missouri | Texas | 28–25 | +2.9 | 54% | 53 | Missouri |
| 10 | NC State | Duke | 23–28 | -5.1 | 40% | 51 | Duke |
| 10 | Navy | Temple | 28–24 | +4.5 | 59% | 52 | Navy |
| 10 | Nevada | New Mexico | 19–31 | -12.7 | 18% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 10 | New Mexico State | Liberty | 20–31 | -10.9 | 21% | 52 | Liberty |
| 10 | North Texas | Rice | 39–15 | +23.7 | 93% | 54 | North Texas |
| 10 | Northwestern | Iowa | 23–27 | -3.8 | 46% | 50 | Iowa |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Miami | 30–22 | +8.4 | 74% | 52 | Notre Dame |
| 10 | Ohio State | Oregon | 31–19 | +11.5 | 78% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 10 | Ole Miss | Georgia | 24–29 | -5.5 | 34% | 53 | Georgia |
| 10 | Oregon State | Texas State | 29–25 | +3.3 | 58% | 54 | Oregon State |
| 10 | Purdue | Maryland | 27–24 | +3.1 | 59% | 50 | Purdue |
| 10 | SMU | Virginia Tech | 31–20 | +11.3 | 77% | 51 | SMU |
| 10 | Sacramento State | Toledo | 13–37 | -24.2 | 9% | 51 | Toledo |
| 10 | San José State | Northern Illinois | 32–18 | +14.4 | 83% | 51 | San José State |
| 10 | South Carolina | Texas A&M | 25–27 | -1.6 | 49% | 53 | Texas A&M |
| 10 | Southern Miss | James Madison | 17–37 | -20.2 | 9% | 55 | James Madison |
| 10 | Syracuse | Clemson | 21–30 | -9.3 | 32% | 51 | Clemson |
| 10 | Tennessee | Kentucky | 33–20 | +12.8 | 78% | 53 | Tennessee |
| 10 | Texas Tech | West Virginia | 38–15 | +22.8 | 94% | 52 | Texas Tech |
| 10 | Troy | Louisiana Tech | 28–27 | +0.9 | 49% | 55 | Louisiana Tech |
| 10 | Tulane | Tulsa | 30–23 | +6.4 | 73% | 53 | Tulane |
| 10 | UAB | Charlotte | 33–19 | +13.6 | 83% | 52 | UAB |
| 10 | UConn | North Carolina | 27–24 | +3.3 | 54% | 51 | UConn |
| 10 | UNLV | Wyoming | 35–16 | +18.8 | 87% | 50 | UNLV |
| 10 | UTEP | Hawai'i | 22–29 | -7.5 | 34% | 51 | Hawai'i |
| 10 | Utah | BYU | 27–24 | +3.4 | 58% | 51 | Utah |
| 10 | Utah State | Fresno State | 21–32 | -10.3 | 29% | 53 | Fresno State |
| 10 | Wake Forest FCS | Merrimack | — | +28.8 | 97% | — | Wake Forest |
| 10 | Washington | Penn State | 24–26 | -1.4 | 54% | 50 | Washington |
| 10 | Wisconsin | Rutgers | 33–18 | +15.0 | 83% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 11 | Air Force | San José State | 29–21 | +8.0 | 74% | 50 | Air Force |
| 11 | Akron | Western Michigan | 16–34 | -18.5 | 16% | 50 | Western Michigan |
| 11 | Arizona | Utah | 26–25 | +0.6 | 49% | 52 | Utah |
| 11 | Arkansas | South Carolina | 22–30 | -7.2 | 32% | 52 | South Carolina |
| 11 | BYU | Baylor | 31–21 | +9.6 | 77% | 52 | BYU |
| 11 | Ball State | Buffalo | 21–30 | -8.6 | 29% | 51 | Buffalo |
| 11 | Boise State | Oregon State | 32–21 | +11.0 | 78% | 53 | Boise State |
| 11 | Bowling Green | Kent State | 27–23 | +4.0 | 59% | 51 | Bowling Green |
| 11 | Central Michigan | Sacramento State | 34–17 | +17.2 | 88% | 51 | Central Michigan |
| 11 | Charlotte | East Carolina | 15–39 | -23.2 | 9% | 54 | East Carolina |
| 11 | Clemson | Georgia Tech | 28–22 | +5.9 | 64% | 51 | Clemson |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | Arkansas State | 27–26 | +0.2 | 49% | 53 | Arkansas State |
| 11 | Colorado | Houston | 18–34 | -15.8 | 16% | 51 | Houston |
| 11 | Delaware | Florida International | 24–28 | -3.4 | 46% | 52 | Florida International |
| 11 | Georgia | Missouri | 35–20 | +15.1 | 83% | 54 | Georgia |
| 11 | Georgia State | Georgia Southern | 29–25 | +3.9 | 59% | 54 | Georgia State |
| 11 | Hawai'i | North Dakota State | 20–30 | -10.2 | 28% | 50 | North Dakota State |
| 11 | Indiana | USC | 31–19 | +11.4 | 78% | 50 | Indiana |
| 11 | Iowa | Purdue | 33–17 | +15.6 | 87% | 50 | Iowa |
| 11 | Iowa State | Cincinnati | 27–24 | +3.3 | 58% | 51 | Iowa State |
| 11 | Kentucky | Florida | 28–24 | +3.2 | 58% | 52 | Kentucky |
| 11 | LSU | Texas | 28–25 | +3.2 | 58% | 53 | LSU |
| 11 | Liberty | Middle Tennessee | 34–17 | +16.7 | 87% | 52 | Liberty |
| 11 | Louisiana Tech | Southern Miss | 33–20 | +12.7 | 83% | 54 | Louisiana Tech |
| 11 | Marshall | App State | 27–26 | +0.8 | 54% | 54 | Marshall |
| 11 | Maryland | Wisconsin | 20–30 | -9.5 | 32% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 11 | Miami | Duke | 35–16 | +18.9 | 87% | 51 | Miami |
| 11 | Miami (OH) | Ohio | 25–25 | +0.4 | 49% | 50 | Ohio |
| 11 | Michigan State | Washington | 21–29 | -8.7 | 29% | 50 | Washington |
| 11 | Mississippi State | Auburn | 28–24 | +3.9 | 58% | 52 | Mississippi State |
| 11 | Missouri State | New Mexico State | 27–25 | +1.6 | 54% | 52 | Missouri State |
| 11 | NC State | Syracuse | 29–22 | +7.2 | 74% | 51 | NC State |
| 11 | New Mexico | UNLV | 27–23 | +4.6 | 64% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 11 | North Carolina | Louisville | 21–29 | -7.9 | 32% | 51 | Louisville |
| 11 | Northern Illinois | Nevada | 22–29 | -7.4 | 29% | 51 | Nevada |
| 11 | Notre Dame | Boston College | 47–5 | +41.8 | 100% | 53 | Notre Dame |
| 11 | Ohio State | Northwestern | 37–13 | +24.8 | 93% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 11 | Oklahoma | Ole Miss | 25–27 | -2.2 | 48% | 53 | Ole Miss |
| 11 | Oklahoma State | Texas Tech | 18–34 | -15.4 | 16% | 52 | Texas Tech |
| 11 | Oregon | Michigan | 31–19 | +11.6 | 78% | 50 | Oregon |
| 11 | Penn State | Minnesota | 31–19 | +11.4 | 77% | 50 | Penn State |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | Florida State | 28–22 | +6.0 | 64% | 51 | Pittsburgh |
| 11 | Rice | Tulane | 20–32 | -12.0 | 21% | 52 | Tulane |
| 11 | Rutgers | Nebraska | 16–34 | -17.7 | 16% | 50 | Nebraska |
| 11 | SMU | Wake Forest | 27–24 | +3.4 | 59% | 51 | SMU |
| 11 | Sam Houston | Kennesaw State | 25–27 | -2.3 | 46% | 52 | Kennesaw State |
| 11 | San Diego State | Utah State | 28–25 | +3.3 | 58% | 53 | San Diego State |
| 11 | South Alabama | Troy | 28–25 | +3.3 | 58% | 54 | South Alabama |
| 11 | South Florida | Memphis | 26–27 | -1.5 | 52% | 53 | South Florida |
| 11 | TCU | Kansas State | 27–24 | +3.3 | 58% | 51 | TCU |
| 11 | Temple | UAB | 29–23 | +5.5 | 64% | 52 | Temple |
| 11 | Texas A&M | Tennessee | 25–27 | -2.2 | 46% | 53 | Tennessee |
| 11 | Texas State | Fresno State | 28–25 | +2.4 | 54% | 53 | Texas State |
| 11 | Toledo | Massachusetts | 32–18 | +14.0 | 83% | 50 | Toledo |
| 11 | Tulsa | Florida Atlantic | 26–28 | -1.5 | 49% | 54 | Florida Atlantic |
| 11 | UCF | Arizona State | 27–24 | +2.5 | 54% | 51 | UCF |
| 11 | UCLA | Illinois | 32–18 | +14.4 | 83% | 50 | UCLA |
| 11 | UConn | James Madison | 23–30 | -6.7 | 34% | 53 | James Madison |
| 11 | UL Monroe | Louisiana | 17–37 | -19.7 | 11% | 54 | Louisiana |
| 11 | UTEP | Wyoming | 21–30 | -9.1 | 29% | 51 | Wyoming |
| 11 | UTSA | North Texas | 29–25 | +3.4 | 58% | 54 | UTSA |
| 11 | Vanderbilt | Alabama | 18–33 | -15.3 | 16% | 52 | Alabama |
| 11 | Virginia | California | 32–19 | +12.8 | 78% | 51 | Virginia |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | Stanford | 33–18 | +14.4 | 83% | 51 | Virginia Tech |
| 11 | Washington State | Colorado State | 29–25 | +3.9 | 58% | 53 | Washington State |
| 11 | West Virginia | Kansas | 25–27 | -1.5 | 46% | 52 | Kansas |
| 11 | Western Kentucky | Jacksonville State | 23–28 | -5.4 | 34% | 51 | Jacksonville State |
| 12 | Air Force | UTEP | 35–16 | +19.3 | 88% | 51 | Air Force |
| 12 | Alabama FCS | Chattanooga | — | +37.2 | 99% | — | Alabama |
| 12 | App State | UL Monroe | 34–19 | +15.2 | 83% | 54 | App State |
| 12 | Arizona State | Oklahoma State | 28–25 | +3.3 | 59% | 52 | Arizona State |
| 12 | Army | East Carolina | 25–28 | -2.7 | 46% | 53 | East Carolina |
| 12 | Auburn FCS | Samford | — | +26.4 | 97% | — | Auburn |
| 12 | Baylor | Texas Tech | 24–29 | -4.8 | 40% | 52 | Texas Tech |
| 12 | Boise State | San Diego State | 39–15 | +23.6 | 93% | 54 | Boise State |
| 12 | Boston College | Syracuse | 26–25 | +0.8 | 52% | 51 | Boston College |
| 12 | Buffalo | Central Michigan | 28–22 | +5.5 | 59% | 50 | Buffalo |
| 12 | California | Stanford | 29–22 | +7.9 | 64% | 51 | California |
| 12 | Cincinnati | Colorado | 30–21 | +9.4 | 78% | 51 | Cincinnati |
| 12 | Duke | Clemson | 28–22 | +6.0 | 64% | 51 | Duke |
| 12 | Florida | Vanderbilt | 29–23 | +6.4 | 59% | 52 | Florida |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | South Florida | 26–27 | -1.7 | 46% | 53 | South Florida |
| 12 | Florida State | NC State | 27–24 | +3.2 | 59% | 51 | Florida State |
| 12 | Fresno State | Colorado State | 34–20 | +14.1 | 87% | 54 | Fresno State |
| 12 | Georgia Tech | Wake Forest | 22–29 | -6.4 | 40% | 51 | Wake Forest |
| 12 | Illinois | Iowa | 20–30 | -10.8 | 26% | 50 | Iowa |
| 12 | Jacksonville State | Missouri State | 33–18 | +15.0 | 83% | 52 | Jacksonville State |
| 12 | Kansas | BYU | 18–33 | -14.7 | 18% | 51 | BYU |
| 12 | Kansas State | Arizona | 23–29 | -6.0 | 34% | 51 | Arizona |
| 12 | Kennesaw State | Florida International | 24–28 | -3.6 | 46% | 52 | Florida International |
| 12 | Kent State | Miami (OH) | 21–30 | -9.1 | 29% | 50 | Miami (OH) |
| 12 | Liberty | Western Kentucky | 33–19 | +14.5 | 83% | 52 | Liberty |
| 12 | Louisiana | Coastal Carolina | 34–21 | +12.9 | 83% | 55 | Louisiana |
| 12 | Louisiana Tech | Arkansas State | 30–23 | +7.2 | 74% | 54 | Louisiana Tech |
| 12 | Louisville | Pittsburgh | 29–22 | +6.7 | 64% | 51 | Louisville |
| 12 | Marshall | Georgia State | 26–29 | -2.4 | 46% | 55 | Georgia State |
| 12 | Massachusetts | Akron | 28–23 | +5.5 | 64% | 51 | Massachusetts |
| 12 | Miami | Virginia Tech | 39–13 | +26.2 | 94% | 53 | Miami |
| 12 | Michigan | UCLA | 26–24 | +2.0 | 58% | 50 | Michigan |
| 12 | Michigan State | Oregon | 15–35 | -20.0 | 9% | 50 | Oregon |
| 12 | Minnesota | Northwestern | 24–27 | -3.0 | 46% | 50 | Northwestern |
| 12 | Mississippi State FCS | Tennessee Tech | — | +27.0 | 97% | — | Mississippi State |
| 12 | Missouri | Kentucky | 32–21 | +11.4 | 78% | 53 | Missouri |
| 12 | Navy | Memphis | 23–31 | -7.3 | 34% | 54 | Memphis |
| 12 | Nebraska | Ohio State | 18–32 | -13.8 | 21% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 12 | Nevada | Hawai'i | 28–23 | +4.5 | 64% | 51 | Nevada |
| 12 | New Mexico State | Delaware | 27–25 | +1.7 | 49% | 52 | Delaware |
| 12 | North Dakota State | Northern Illinois | 39–11 | +28.3 | 96% | 50 | North Dakota State |
| 12 | Notre Dame | SMU | 36–17 | +18.5 | 87% | 53 | Notre Dame |
| 12 | Ohio | Ball State | 34–17 | +17.4 | 88% | 50 | Ohio |
| 12 | Oklahoma | Texas A&M | 28–24 | +3.2 | 59% | 52 | Oklahoma |
| 12 | Ole Miss FCS | Wofford | — | +37.0 | 99% | — | Ole Miss |
| 12 | Oregon State | Utah State | 33–20 | +13.0 | 78% | 53 | Oregon State |
| 12 | Penn State | Rutgers | 34–16 | +17.6 | 87% | 50 | Penn State |
| 12 | Purdue | Wisconsin | 23–28 | -4.9 | 40% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 12 | Sam Houston | Middle Tennessee | 25–27 | -1.5 | 49% | 52 | Middle Tennessee |
| 12 | San José State | UNLV | 19–31 | -12.5 | 26% | 50 | UNLV |
| 12 | South Carolina | Georgia | 16–37 | -20.2 | 11% | 53 | Georgia |
| 12 | Southern Miss | South Alabama | 24–31 | -6.9 | 34% | 55 | South Alabama |
| 12 | TCU | Utah | 21–31 | -9.8 | 29% | 51 | Utah |
| 12 | Temple | Rice | 32–20 | +11.3 | 77% | 52 | Temple |
| 12 | Tennessee | LSU | 28–26 | +1.6 | 54% | 54 | Tennessee |
| 12 | Texas | Arkansas | 40–12 | +27.4 | 94% | 52 | Texas |
| 12 | Texas State | Washington State | 33–20 | +13.0 | 78% | 53 | Texas State |
| 12 | Toledo | Bowling Green | 32–19 | +12.9 | 78% | 50 | Toledo |
| 12 | Troy | Georgia Southern | 28–25 | +3.3 | 58% | 54 | Troy |
| 12 | Tulane | North Texas | 25–29 | -3.7 | 46% | 54 | North Texas |
| 12 | Tulsa | Charlotte | 35–18 | +16.8 | 87% | 53 | Tulsa |
| 12 | UAB | UTSA | 19–34 | -15.2 | 16% | 53 | UTSA |
| 12 | UCF | Iowa State | 26–26 | +0.2 | 52% | 51 | UCF |
| 12 | UConn | Old Dominion | 33–20 | +12.6 | 74% | 53 | UConn |
| 12 | USC | Maryland | 39–11 | +27.8 | 95% | 50 | USC |
| 12 | Virginia | North Carolina | 29–22 | +6.2 | 64% | 51 | Virginia |
| 12 | Washington | Indiana | 17–33 | -16.5 | 16% | 50 | Indiana |
| 12 | West Virginia | Houston | 19–33 | -14.1 | 16% | 51 | Houston |
| 12 | Western Michigan | Eastern Michigan | 29–21 | +8.1 | 74% | 50 | Western Michigan |
| 12 | Wyoming | New Mexico | 18–33 | -15.0 | 16% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 13 | Akron | Buffalo | 22–28 | -6.1 | 40% | 51 | Buffalo |
| 13 | Alabama | Auburn | 35–17 | +17.3 | 88% | 52 | Alabama |
| 13 | Arizona | Arizona State | 32–19 | +12.8 | 78% | 51 | Arizona |
| 13 | Arkansas | LSU | 16–36 | -19.5 | 11% | 52 | LSU |
| 13 | Arkansas State | Troy | 26–27 | -0.7 | 49% | 53 | Troy |
| 13 | BYU | Cincinnati | 33–18 | +15.3 | 87% | 51 | BYU |
| 13 | Ball State | Central Michigan | 22–29 | -6.9 | 34% | 51 | Central Michigan |
| 13 | Bowling Green | Massachusetts | 25–26 | -0.7 | 54% | 51 | Bowling Green |
| 13 | California | Pittsburgh | 22–29 | -7.6 | 32% | 51 | Pittsburgh |
| 13 | Charlotte | Navy | 18–35 | -17.3 | 13% | 53 | Navy |
| 13 | Clemson | South Carolina | 26–25 | +0.9 | 54% | 51 | Clemson |
| 13 | Colorado | UCF | 25–27 | -1.8 | 49% | 51 | UCF |
| 13 | Delaware | Jacksonville State | 23–29 | -6.2 | 40% | 51 | Jacksonville State |
| 13 | East Carolina | Florida Atlantic | 30–24 | +6.4 | 64% | 54 | East Carolina |
| 13 | Eastern Michigan | Kent State | 31–20 | +11.5 | 77% | 51 | Eastern Michigan |
| 13 | Florida International | Sam Houston | 33–18 | +14.9 | 83% | 52 | Florida International |
| 13 | Florida State | Florida | 25–26 | -1.7 | 49% | 51 | Florida |
| 13 | Georgia | Georgia Tech | 44–8 | +35.7 | 96% | 51 | Georgia |
| 13 | Georgia Southern | Louisiana Tech | 28–27 | +0.5 | 49% | 55 | Louisiana Tech |
| 13 | Georgia State | Louisiana | 28–26 | +2.2 | 52% | 54 | Georgia State |
| 13 | Hawai'i | Sacramento State | 33–18 | +15.3 | 87% | 51 | Hawai'i |
| 13 | Houston | Baylor | 28–24 | +3.9 | 64% | 51 | Houston |
| 13 | Indiana | Purdue | 39–11 | +27.7 | 96% | 50 | Indiana |
| 13 | Iowa | Nebraska | 27–24 | +2.9 | 59% | 50 | Iowa |
| 13 | Iowa State | Kansas State | 27–24 | +2.5 | 54% | 51 | Iowa State |
| 13 | James Madison | Coastal Carolina | 40–15 | +24.8 | 94% | 55 | James Madison |
| 13 | Kentucky | Louisville | 25–26 | -1.6 | 49% | 51 | Louisville |
| 13 | Maryland | Penn State | 19–31 | -11.5 | 21% | 50 | Penn State |
| 13 | Memphis | Temple | 34–18 | +15.1 | 83% | 52 | Memphis |
| 13 | Miami | Boston College | 47–6 | +41.6 | 100% | 53 | Miami |
| 13 | Middle Tennessee | New Mexico State | 27–24 | +3.3 | 58% | 52 | Middle Tennessee |
| 13 | Missouri | Oklahoma | 28–25 | +3.3 | 59% | 53 | Missouri |
| 13 | Missouri State | Liberty | 19–33 | -14.6 | 16% | 52 | Liberty |
| 13 | New Mexico | Air Force | 32–18 | +14.6 | 83% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 13 | North Carolina | NC State | 27–24 | +2.5 | 54% | 51 | North Carolina |
| 13 | North Texas | UAB | 35–19 | +16.2 | 87% | 54 | North Texas |
| 13 | Northern Illinois | UTEP | 27–24 | +2.5 | 58% | 51 | Northern Illinois |
| 13 | Northwestern | Illinois | 30–20 | +10.1 | 76% | 50 | Northwestern |
| 13 | Ohio | Toledo | 26–24 | +1.8 | 54% | 50 | Ohio |
| 13 | Ohio State | Michigan | 34–17 | +17.0 | 88% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 13 | Oklahoma State | Kansas | 27–24 | +2.6 | 54% | 51 | Oklahoma State |
| 13 | Old Dominion | Southern Miss | 32–22 | +9.4 | 77% | 54 | Old Dominion |
| 13 | Ole Miss | Mississippi State | 32–21 | +11.6 | 78% | 53 | Ole Miss |
| 13 | Oregon | Washington | 33–17 | +15.9 | 83% | 50 | Oregon |
| 13 | Rice | Army | 21–31 | -10.1 | 29% | 52 | Army |
| 13 | Rutgers | Michigan State | 26–24 | +1.3 | 54% | 50 | Rutgers |
| 13 | San José State | North Dakota State | 20–30 | -10.5 | 24% | 50 | North Dakota State |
| 13 | South Alabama | App State | 28–25 | +3.2 | 59% | 54 | South Alabama |
| 13 | South Florida | Tulane | 30–22 | +8.1 | 73% | 52 | South Florida |
| 13 | Stanford | SMU | 16–35 | -19.4 | 13% | 51 | SMU |
| 13 | Syracuse | Notre Dame | 13–40 | -27.4 | 6% | 53 | Notre Dame |
| 13 | Texas A&M | Texas | 24–28 | -4.8 | 40% | 52 | Texas |
| 13 | Texas Tech | TCU | 33–19 | +13.9 | 83% | 51 | Texas Tech |
| 13 | UCLA | USC | 25–25 | -0.4 | 48% | 50 | USC |
| 13 | UL Monroe | Marshall | 20–33 | -13.2 | 21% | 54 | Marshall |
| 13 | UNLV | Nevada | 33–18 | +14.9 | 83% | 50 | UNLV |
| 13 | UTSA | Tulsa | 35–19 | +15.5 | 83% | 54 | UTSA |
| 13 | Utah | West Virginia | 39–15 | +23.8 | 94% | 54 | Utah |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | Tennessee | 22–30 | -8.8 | 29% | 52 | Tennessee |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | Virginia | 27–24 | +3.2 | 54% | 51 | Virginia Tech |
| 13 | Wake Forest | Duke | 27–24 | +3.3 | 58% | 51 | Wake Forest |
| 13 | Western Kentucky | Kennesaw State | 27–25 | +1.6 | 52% | 52 | Western Kentucky |
| 13 | Western Michigan | Miami (OH) | 27–23 | +3.9 | 64% | 50 | Western Michigan |
| 13 | Wisconsin | Minnesota | 29–21 | +7.6 | 64% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 13 | Wyoming | UConn | 21–29 | -8.2 | 34% | 50 | UConn |
| 15 | Army | Navy | 28–24 | +3.5 | 58% | 52 | Army |