The full 2026 FBS regular season, decoded by the HefML stacked ensemble — win expectations, the projected board, and where the model disagrees with the public line. Projections, not betting advice.
HefML is a stacked three-model ensemble. CFBone (elastic-net), Blue (gradient boosting), and Gryphon (Elo + special teams) each produce a win probability, spread, and total; a meta-model blends them on out-of-fold holdouts and applies a learned home/away bias correction.
Inputs: walk-forward Elo, opponent-adjusted efficiency, QB on/off ratings, transfer-portal net & churn, coaching-cohort signals, rest, travel, talent, returning production (Connelly 2026), and SP+. Spreads carry favorite-size-scaled uncertainty.
Bar = HefML projected wins (FCS games included). Gold dot = SP+ implied wins (same scale as the bar). A dot right of the bar means SP+ expects more wins than HefML's schedule-based projection — often where edges live.
| # | Team | Conf | Elo | SP+ | Exp W | SP+ Exp W | ΔW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | SEC | 1981 | +25.5 | 10.1 | 8.7 | -1.4 |
| 2 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 1977 | +31.8 | 9.6 | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Indiana | Big Ten | 1944 | +24.5 | 10.1 | 8.6 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 1924 | +25.8 | 10.6 | 8.7 | -1.9 |
| 5 | Miami | ACC | 1916 | +21.0 | 10.3 | 8.3 | -2.1 |
| 6 | Oregon | Big Ten | 1898 | +28.3 | 9.3 | 8.9 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | SEC | 1892 | +15.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | -0.6 |
| 8 | Texas | SEC | 1890 | +23.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Alabama | SEC | 1884 | +18.2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Utah | Big 12 | 1863 | +11.9 | 9.5 | 7.5 | -2.1 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 1852 | +23.1 | 10.1 | 8.5 | -1.6 |
| 12 | LSU | SEC | 1839 | +20.2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | +0.1 |
| 13 | Texas A&M | SEC | 1835 | +20.3 | 7.4 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 14 | Tennessee | SEC | 1829 | +16.0 | 8.4 | 7.8 | -0.6 |
| 15 | BYU | Big 12 | 1826 | +15.5 | 8.7 | 7.8 | -0.9 |
| 16 | USC | Big Ten | 1793 | +16.8 | 8.0 | 7.9 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Missouri | SEC | 1780 | +14.8 | 7.3 | 7.7 | +0.5 |
| 18 | Iowa | Big Ten | 1775 | +13.6 | 8.1 | 7.6 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Penn State | Big Ten | 1774 | +15.7 | 8.9 | 7.8 | -1.1 |
| 20 | Oklahoma | SEC | 1767 | +17.2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | +1.4 |
| 21 | Michigan | Big Ten | 1755 | +16.1 | 7.1 | 7.8 | +0.7 |
| 22 | Arizona | Big 12 | 1751 | +10.2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | -0.9 |
| 23 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 1749 | +10.0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | +1.5 |
| 24 | SMU | ACC | 1746 | +10.9 | 8.9 | 7.4 | -1.6 |
| 25 | Florida | SEC | 1743 | +14.9 | 6.6 | 7.7 | +1.1 |
Expected wins summed over every game on the schedule, including non-FBS opponents (shown as "Buy"). Excluding those understates totals by roughly one win for most Power-conference teams.
For every game with a market line posted this week, HefML's home line beside the public number, and the gap between the two.
| Wk | Matchup | HefML | Public | Δ | Lean | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | North Texas vs Rice | -27.1 | -16.8 | +10.3 | Home -16.8 | 70% |
| 10 | UConn vs North Carolina | -3.1 | +7.2 | +10.3 | Home +7.2 | 77% |
| 10 | Tulane vs Tulsa | -6.5 | +2.8 | +9.2 | Home +2.8 | 69% |
| 10 | Arizona State vs Colorado | -10.7 | -3.2 | +7.5 | Home -3.2 | 66% |
| 10 | UNLV vs Wyoming | -11.0 | -4.8 | +6.2 | Home -4.8 | 64% |
| 10 | Michigan vs Michigan State | -20.2 | -14.0 | +6.2 | Home -14.0 | 61% |
| 10 | Wisconsin vs Rutgers | -12.9 | -18.8 | -5.8 | Away +18.8 | 66% |
| 10 | Kansas State vs Oklahoma State | +0.9 | +6.5 | +5.6 | Home +6.5 | 65% |
| 10 | Boston College vs Florida State | +1.3 | +6.5 | +5.2 | Home +6.5 | 65% |
| 10 | Syracuse vs Clemson | +7.6 | +2.5 | -5.1 | Away -2.5 | 60% |
| 10 | Utah State vs Fresno State | +7.0 | +2.0 | -5.0 | Away -2.0 | 60% |
| 10 | Tennessee vs Kentucky | -10.7 | -6.0 | +4.7 | Home -6.0 | 61% |
| 10 | UAB vs Charlotte | -12.7 | -8.5 | +4.2 | Home -8.5 | 56% |
| 10 | Georgia Southern vs Marshall | -5.4 | -9.5 | -4.1 | Away +9.5 | 63% |
| 10 | Navy vs Temple | -3.1 | -7.2 | -4.1 | Away +7.2 | 65% |
| 10 | Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky | -2.1 | +2.0 | +4.1 | Home +2.0 | 59% |
| 10 | San José State vs Northern Illinois | -14.8 | -10.8 | +4.1 | Home -10.8 | 55% |
| 10 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | -20.8 | -17.0 | +3.8 | Home -17.0 | 56% |
| 10 | South Carolina vs Texas A&M | -3.3 | -7.0 | -3.7 | Away +7.0 | 62% |
| 10 | Utah vs BYU | -8.2 | -4.5 | +3.7 | Home -4.5 | 57% |
| 10 | Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion | -2.9 | -6.5 | -3.6 | Away +6.5 | 59% |
| 10 | Louisiana vs South Alabama | -10.7 | -7.2 | +3.5 | Home -7.2 | 53% |
| 10 | Missouri vs Texas | -0.9 | +2.5 | +3.4 | Home +2.5 | 57% |
| 10 | App State vs Georgia State | -3.3 | -6.5 | -3.2 | Away +6.5 | 58% |
| 10 | Oregon State vs Texas State | -2.8 | -6.0 | -3.2 | Away +6.0 | 59% |
| 10 | Florida International vs Missouri State | -7.9 | -4.8 | +3.1 | Home -4.8 | 56% |
| 10 | Colorado State vs Boise State | +20.1 | +17.0 | -3.1 | Away -17.0 | 55% |
| 10 | Texas Tech vs West Virginia | -19.7 | -16.8 | +3.0 | Home -16.8 | 55% |
| 10 | Florida vs Oklahoma | -2.8 | -5.8 | -2.9 | Away +5.8 | 58% |
| 10 | LSU vs Alabama | -3.3 | -6.0 | -2.7 | Away +6.0 | 58% |
| 10 | Minnesota vs UCLA | +7.1 | +4.8 | -2.3 | — | — |
| 10 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -16.7 | -14.5 | +2.2 | — | — |
| 10 | Ohio State vs Oregon | -9.9 | -7.8 | +2.2 | — | — |
| 10 | UTEP vs Hawai'i | +10.0 | +8.0 | -2.0 | — | — |
| 10 | Troy vs Louisiana Tech | +7.4 | +5.5 | -1.9 | — | — |
| 10 | Purdue vs Maryland | -3.2 | -5.0 | -1.8 | — | — |
| 10 | New Mexico State vs Liberty | +17.5 | +16.0 | -1.5 | — | — |
| 10 | Baylor vs Iowa State | -8.5 | -10.0 | -1.5 | — | — |
| 10 | Ole Miss vs Georgia | +2.4 | +3.5 | +1.1 | — | — |
| 10 | Georgia Tech vs Louisville | +15.6 | +14.5 | -1.1 | — | — |
| 10 | Notre Dame vs Miami | -6.4 | -7.2 | -0.9 | — | — |
| 10 | Washington vs Penn State | -3.3 | -2.5 | +0.8 | — | — |
| 10 | Army vs Air Force | -2.9 | -3.5 | -0.6 | — | — |
| 10 | Northwestern vs Iowa | +0.6 | +0.0 | -0.6 | — | — |
| 10 | NC State vs Duke | +4.6 | +4.0 | -0.6 | — | — |
| 10 | Auburn vs Arkansas | -10.8 | -10.5 | +0.3 | — | — |
| 10 | Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt | -3.3 | -3.0 | +0.3 | — | — |
| 10 | Kennesaw State vs Delaware | +1.4 | +1.2 | -0.2 | — | — |
| 10 | Houston vs Cincinnati | -10.9 | -10.8 | +0.1 | — | — |
| 10 | Kansas vs UCF | -3.2 | -3.2 | -0.1 | — | — |
Home-team lines (negative = home favored). Δ = HefML home margin − public home margin; positive means HefML is higher on the home team than the market. Lean shows only where the gap clears the vig-aware threshold (2.5 pts). Cover = the model’s empirical cover probability for the leaned side, from the out-of-fold spread distribution — not an ATS record.
| 1 | Rob Harley Northern Illinois · yr 1 | 61 |
| 2 | Phil Longo Sam Houston · yr 2 | 58 |
| 3 | Bryant Vincent UL Monroe · yr 3 | 55 |
| 4 | Tim Albin Charlotte · yr 2 | 55 |
| 5 | Dell McGee Georgia State · yr 3 | 46 |
| 6 | Kirby Moore Washington State · yr 1 | 44 |
| 7 | Mike Uremovich Ball State · yr 2 | 44 |
| 8 | Scotty Walden UTEP · yr 3 | 42 |
| 9 | Dabo Swinney Clemson · yr 19 | 41 |
| 10 | Derek Mason Middle Tennessee · yr 3 | 40 |
| Wk | Home | Away | Proj Score | Spread | Win% | Total | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | App State | Georgia State | 28–25 | +3.3 | 57% | 53 | App State |
| 10 | Arizona State | Colorado | 32–21 | +10.7 | 77% | 53 | Arizona State |
| 10 | Arkansas State | UL Monroe | 35–18 | +16.7 | 87% | 52 | Arkansas State |
| 10 | Army | Air Force | 27–24 | +2.9 | 59% | 52 | Army |
| 10 | Auburn | Arkansas | 31–20 | +10.8 | 77% | 51 | Auburn |
| 10 | Baylor | Iowa State | 31–23 | +8.5 | 77% | 54 | Baylor |
| 10 | Boston College | Florida State | 25–26 | -1.3 | 49% | 51 | Florida State |
| 10 | Coastal Carolina | Old Dominion | 28–25 | +2.9 | 57% | 53 | Coastal Carolina |
| 10 | Colorado State | Boise State | 17–37 | -20.1 | 8% | 54 | Boise State |
| 10 | Florida | Oklahoma | 27–24 | +2.8 | 56% | 51 | Florida |
| 10 | Florida International | Missouri State | 30–22 | +7.9 | 73% | 51 | Florida International |
| 10 | Georgia Southern | Marshall | 29–24 | +5.4 | 59% | 53 | Georgia Southern |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | Louisville | 18–34 | -15.6 | 17% | 53 | Louisville |
| 10 | Houston | Cincinnati | 31–20 | +10.9 | 77% | 52 | Houston |
| 10 | Jacksonville State | Sam Houston | 36–15 | +20.8 | 93% | 52 | Jacksonville State |
| 10 | Kansas | UCF | 28–25 | +3.2 | 57% | 53 | Kansas |
| 10 | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | 26–27 | -0.9 | 57% | 52 | Kansas State |
| 10 | Kennesaw State | Delaware | 25–26 | -1.4 | 49% | 51 | Delaware |
| 10 | LSU | Alabama | 27–24 | +3.3 | 57% | 51 | LSU |
| 10 | Louisiana | South Alabama | 32–21 | +10.7 | 73% | 53 | Louisiana |
| 10 | Michigan | Michigan State | 35–15 | +20.2 | 93% | 50 | Michigan |
| 10 | Middle Tennessee | Western Kentucky | 27–25 | +2.1 | 49% | 51 | Western Kentucky |
| 10 | Minnesota | UCLA | 22–29 | -7.1 | 35% | 50 | UCLA |
| 10 | Mississippi State | Vanderbilt | 27–24 | +3.3 | 57% | 51 | Mississippi State |
| 10 | Missouri | Texas | 26–25 | +0.9 | 49% | 51 | Texas |
| 10 | NC State | Duke | 23–28 | -4.6 | 35% | 51 | Duke |
| 10 | Navy | Temple | 28–25 | +3.1 | 57% | 53 | Navy |
| 10 | New Mexico State | Liberty | 17–34 | -17.5 | 17% | 51 | Liberty |
| 10 | North Texas | Rice | 41–14 | +27.1 | 93% | 55 | North Texas |
| 10 | Northwestern | Iowa | 25–25 | -0.6 | 49% | 50 | Iowa |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Miami | 29–22 | +6.4 | 64% | 51 | Notre Dame |
| 10 | Ohio State | Oregon | 30–20 | +9.9 | 77% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 10 | Ole Miss | Georgia | 24–27 | -2.4 | 45% | 51 | Georgia |
| 10 | Oregon State | Texas State | 29–26 | +2.8 | 56% | 55 | Oregon State |
| 10 | Purdue | Maryland | 27–24 | +3.2 | 59% | 50 | Purdue |
| 10 | San José State | Northern Illinois | 33–18 | +14.8 | 83% | 51 | San José State |
| 10 | South Carolina | Texas A&M | 27–24 | +3.3 | 57% | 51 | South Carolina |
| 10 | Syracuse | Clemson | 22–30 | -7.6 | 33% | 52 | Clemson |
| 10 | Tennessee | Kentucky | 31–20 | +10.7 | 77% | 51 | Tennessee |
| 10 | Texas Tech | West Virginia | 37–17 | +19.7 | 93% | 53 | Texas Tech |
| 10 | Troy | Louisiana Tech | 23–31 | -7.4 | 33% | 54 | Louisiana Tech |
| 10 | Tulane | Tulsa | 30–24 | +6.5 | 66% | 54 | Tulane |
| 10 | UAB | Charlotte | 33–20 | +12.7 | 80% | 54 | UAB |
| 10 | UConn | North Carolina | 27–24 | +3.1 | 49% | 51 | North Carolina |
| 10 | UNLV | Wyoming | 31–20 | +11.0 | 77% | 50 | UNLV |
| 10 | UTEP | Hawai'i | 20–30 | -10.0 | 31% | 51 | Hawai'i |
| 10 | Utah | BYU | 30–22 | +8.2 | 69% | 52 | Utah |
| 10 | Utah State | Fresno State | 23–30 | -7.0 | 33% | 54 | Fresno State |
| 10 | Wake Forest FCS | Merrimack | — | +31.2 | 98% | — | Wake Forest |
| 10 | Washington | Penn State | 27–23 | +3.3 | 59% | 50 | Washington |
| 10 | Wisconsin | Rutgers | 32–19 | +12.9 | 83% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 11 | Air Force | San José State | 29–21 | +7.6 | 77% | 51 | Air Force |
| 11 | Akron | Western Michigan | 16–35 | -18.8 | 12% | 51 | Western Michigan |
| 11 | Arizona | Utah | 24–29 | -4.4 | 45% | 53 | Utah |
| 11 | Arkansas | South Carolina | 20–31 | -10.7 | 28% | 51 | South Carolina |
| 11 | BYU | Baylor | 30–23 | +7.3 | 73% | 53 | BYU |
| 11 | Ball State | Buffalo | 22–29 | -7.1 | 33% | 51 | Buffalo |
| 11 | Boise State | Oregon State | 34–21 | +12.7 | 83% | 55 | Boise State |
| 11 | Bowling Green | Kent State | 27–24 | +3.0 | 59% | 51 | Bowling Green |
| 11 | Central Michigan | Sacramento State | 35–15 | +20.2 | 88% | 51 | Central Michigan |
| 11 | Charlotte | East Carolina | 18–37 | -19.0 | 12% | 54 | East Carolina |
| 11 | Clemson | Georgia Tech | 32–19 | +12.9 | 83% | 52 | Clemson |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | Arkansas State | 25–27 | -1.6 | 45% | 52 | Arkansas State |
| 11 | Colorado | Houston | 18–34 | -15.4 | 17% | 52 | Houston |
| 11 | Delaware | Florida International | 27–24 | +3.0 | 59% | 51 | Delaware |
| 11 | Georgia | Missouri | 32–19 | +12.9 | 83% | 51 | Georgia |
| 11 | Georgia State | Georgia Southern | 24–29 | -4.4 | 42% | 53 | Georgia Southern |
| 11 | Hawai'i | North Dakota State | 21–30 | -9.0 | 33% | 50 | North Dakota State |
| 11 | Indiana | USC | 31–20 | +10.9 | 79% | 50 | Indiana |
| 11 | Iowa | Purdue | 35–15 | +19.3 | 88% | 50 | Iowa |
| 11 | Iowa State | Cincinnati | 28–25 | +2.8 | 49% | 53 | Cincinnati |
| 11 | Kentucky | Florida | 27–24 | +2.8 | 57% | 51 | Kentucky |
| 11 | LSU | Texas | 27–24 | +2.9 | 57% | 51 | LSU |
| 11 | Liberty | Middle Tennessee | 35–16 | +19.4 | 88% | 51 | Liberty |
| 11 | Louisiana Tech | Southern Miss | 35–19 | +16.1 | 87% | 54 | Louisiana Tech |
| 11 | Marshall | App State | 29–24 | +5.0 | 59% | 53 | Marshall |
| 11 | Maryland | Wisconsin | 20–31 | -11.1 | 28% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 11 | Miami | Duke | 34–17 | +17.1 | 87% | 52 | Miami |
| 11 | Miami (OH) | Ohio | 24–27 | -2.8 | 45% | 50 | Ohio |
| 11 | Michigan State | Washington | 18–33 | -14.9 | 17% | 50 | Washington |
| 11 | Mississippi State | Auburn | 25–26 | -1.5 | 49% | 51 | Auburn |
| 11 | Missouri State | New Mexico State | 27–24 | +3.3 | 57% | 52 | Missouri State |
| 11 | NC State | Syracuse | 30–22 | +8.3 | 72% | 52 | NC State |
| 11 | New Mexico | UNLV | 31–20 | +10.8 | 77% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 11 | North Carolina | Louisville | 21–31 | -9.5 | 31% | 52 | Louisville |
| 11 | Northern Illinois | Nevada | 21–30 | -9.6 | 31% | 51 | Nevada |
| 11 | Notre Dame | Boston College | 44–8 | +36.0 | 96% | 52 | Notre Dame |
| 11 | Ohio State | Northwestern | 35–15 | +20.1 | 87% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 11 | Oklahoma | Ole Miss | 22–29 | -6.6 | 35% | 51 | Ole Miss |
| 11 | Oklahoma State | Texas Tech | 19–33 | -14.1 | 17% | 53 | Texas Tech |
| 11 | Oregon | Michigan | 31–20 | +10.9 | 77% | 50 | Oregon |
| 11 | Penn State | Minnesota | 30–20 | +9.5 | 73% | 50 | Penn State |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | Florida State | 30–23 | +7.4 | 69% | 53 | Pittsburgh |
| 11 | Rice | Tulane | 19–35 | -15.4 | 17% | 54 | Tulane |
| 11 | Rutgers | Nebraska | 20–30 | -9.6 | 28% | 50 | Nebraska |
| 11 | SMU | Wake Forest | 27–24 | +3.3 | 57% | 51 | SMU |
| 11 | Sam Houston | Kennesaw State | 22–30 | -7.7 | 31% | 51 | Kennesaw State |
| 11 | San Diego State | Utah State | 29–26 | +2.9 | 57% | 54 | San Diego State |
| 11 | South Alabama | Troy | 28–25 | +2.8 | 56% | 53 | South Alabama |
| 11 | South Florida | Memphis | 27–28 | -1.3 | 49% | 55 | Memphis |
| 11 | TCU | Kansas State | 29–23 | +5.7 | 64% | 52 | TCU |
| 11 | Temple | UAB | 27–25 | +2.0 | 56% | 53 | Temple |
| 11 | Texas A&M | Tennessee | 24–27 | -3.7 | 45% | 51 | Tennessee |
| 11 | Texas State | Fresno State | 29–26 | +3.2 | 57% | 55 | Texas State |
| 11 | Toledo | Massachusetts | 35–15 | +19.7 | 88% | 51 | Toledo |
| 11 | Tulsa | Florida Atlantic | 27–27 | -0.5 | 49% | 54 | Florida Atlantic |
| 11 | UCF | Arizona State | 26–26 | -0.1 | 49% | 53 | Arizona State |
| 11 | UCLA | Illinois | 31–20 | +11.1 | 77% | 50 | UCLA |
| 11 | UConn | James Madison | 23–30 | -6.7 | 33% | 53 | James Madison |
| 11 | UL Monroe | Louisiana | 17–36 | -19.4 | 12% | 53 | Louisiana |
| 11 | UTEP | Wyoming | 18–33 | -14.4 | 17% | 51 | Wyoming |
| 11 | UTSA | North Texas | 28–27 | +1.0 | 49% | 55 | North Texas |
| 11 | Vanderbilt | Alabama | 16–35 | -18.3 | 13% | 51 | Alabama |
| 11 | Virginia | California | 32–20 | +12.3 | 80% | 52 | Virginia |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | Stanford | 33–18 | +14.8 | 83% | 52 | Virginia Tech |
| 11 | Washington State | Colorado State | 28–27 | +1.3 | 56% | 55 | Washington State |
| 11 | West Virginia | Kansas | 28–25 | +2.9 | 57% | 53 | West Virginia |
| 11 | Western Kentucky | Jacksonville State | 21–30 | -8.8 | 31% | 51 | Jacksonville State |
| 12 | Air Force | UTEP | 35–16 | +19.4 | 88% | 51 | Air Force |
| 12 | Alabama FCS | Chattanooga | — | +35.9 | 99% | — | Alabama |
| 12 | App State | UL Monroe | 35–18 | +16.3 | 83% | 53 | App State |
| 12 | Arizona State | Oklahoma State | 28–25 | +3.3 | 59% | 53 | Arizona State |
| 12 | Army | East Carolina | 26–28 | -1.4 | 49% | 54 | East Carolina |
| 12 | Auburn FCS | Samford | — | +25.6 | 96% | — | Auburn |
| 12 | Baylor | Texas Tech | 24–29 | -4.8 | 41% | 53 | Texas Tech |
| 12 | Boise State | San Diego State | 38–17 | +20.4 | 88% | 55 | Boise State |
| 12 | Boston College | Syracuse | 27–24 | +3.2 | 57% | 52 | Boston College |
| 12 | Buffalo | Central Michigan | 27–24 | +2.9 | 59% | 50 | Buffalo |
| 12 | California | Stanford | 27–25 | +1.4 | 49% | 52 | Stanford |
| 12 | Cincinnati | Colorado | 32–21 | +10.8 | 79% | 53 | Cincinnati |
| 12 | Duke | Clemson | 29–23 | +5.7 | 59% | 52 | Duke |
| 12 | Florida | Vanderbilt | 31–20 | +11.0 | 77% | 51 | Florida |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | South Florida | 26–28 | -1.4 | 49% | 54 | South Florida |
| 12 | Florida State | NC State | 27–24 | +3.2 | 57% | 52 | Florida State |
| 12 | Fresno State | Colorado State | 35–20 | +15.3 | 87% | 55 | Fresno State |
| 12 | Georgia Tech | Wake Forest | 16–35 | -19.0 | 13% | 52 | Wake Forest |
| 12 | Illinois | Iowa | 23–27 | -4.8 | 41% | 50 | Iowa |
| 12 | Jacksonville State | Missouri State | 33–18 | +15.4 | 83% | 51 | Jacksonville State |
| 12 | Kansas | BYU | 19–33 | -14.6 | 17% | 52 | BYU |
| 12 | Kansas State | Arizona | 21–31 | -9.5 | 31% | 52 | Arizona |
| 12 | Kennesaw State | Florida International | 26–25 | +0.6 | 49% | 52 | Florida International |
| 12 | Kent State | Miami (OH) | 20–31 | -11.0 | 21% | 51 | Miami (OH) |
| 12 | Liberty | Western Kentucky | 33–18 | +15.1 | 87% | 51 | Liberty |
| 12 | Louisiana | Coastal Carolina | 33–21 | +11.5 | 79% | 54 | Louisiana |
| 12 | Louisiana Tech | Arkansas State | 31–21 | +9.4 | 77% | 52 | Louisiana Tech |
| 12 | Louisville | Pittsburgh | 32–21 | +10.6 | 77% | 53 | Louisville |
| 12 | Marshall | Georgia State | 30–24 | +6.2 | 64% | 53 | Marshall |
| 12 | Massachusetts | Akron | 29–21 | +8.0 | 66% | 51 | Massachusetts |
| 12 | Miami | Virginia Tech | 38–15 | +23.1 | 93% | 53 | Miami |
| 12 | Michigan | UCLA | 25–25 | +0.2 | 56% | 50 | Michigan |
| 12 | Michigan State | Oregon | 15–35 | -19.8 | 8% | 50 | Oregon |
| 12 | Minnesota | Northwestern | 24–26 | -2.8 | 45% | 50 | Northwestern |
| 12 | Mississippi State FCS | Tennessee Tech | — | +23.9 | 95% | — | Mississippi State |
| 12 | Missouri | Kentucky | 29–22 | +7.4 | 69% | 51 | Missouri |
| 12 | Navy | Memphis | 22–33 | -11.1 | 28% | 55 | Memphis |
| 12 | Nebraska | Ohio State | 17–33 | -15.9 | 17% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 12 | Nevada | Hawai'i | 27–24 | +2.8 | 56% | 51 | Nevada |
| 12 | New Mexico State | Delaware | 23–28 | -4.8 | 42% | 51 | Delaware |
| 12 | North Dakota State | Northern Illinois | 40–10 | +29.7 | 96% | 51 | North Dakota State |
| 12 | Notre Dame | SMU | 33–18 | +15.2 | 83% | 51 | Notre Dame |
| 12 | Ohio | Ball State | 34–17 | +17.5 | 88% | 51 | Ohio |
| 12 | Oklahoma | Texas A&M | 27–24 | +2.8 | 56% | 51 | Oklahoma |
| 12 | Ole Miss FCS | Wofford | — | +37.7 | 99% | — | Ole Miss |
| 12 | Oregon State | Utah State | 33–22 | +10.8 | 77% | 55 | Oregon State |
| 12 | Penn State | Rutgers | 33–17 | +16.5 | 87% | 50 | Penn State |
| 12 | Purdue | Wisconsin | 22–29 | -6.9 | 33% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 12 | Sam Houston | Middle Tennessee | 23–28 | -5.2 | 35% | 51 | Middle Tennessee |
| 12 | San José State | UNLV | 20–30 | -10.3 | 28% | 50 | UNLV |
| 12 | South Carolina | Georgia | 20–31 | -10.9 | 22% | 51 | Georgia |
| 12 | Southern Miss | South Alabama | 26–28 | -2.1 | 45% | 53 | South Alabama |
| 12 | TCU | Utah | 19–33 | -13.5 | 21% | 52 | Utah |
| 12 | Temple | Rice | 31–21 | +9.9 | 77% | 53 | Temple |
| 12 | Tennessee | LSU | 26–26 | -0.1 | 49% | 51 | LSU |
| 12 | Texas | Arkansas | 38–13 | +24.7 | 93% | 51 | Texas |
| 12 | Texas State | Washington State | 35–20 | +15.1 | 83% | 55 | Texas State |
| 12 | Toledo | Bowling Green | 34–16 | +17.5 | 88% | 50 | Toledo |
| 12 | Troy | Georgia Southern | 25–28 | -2.7 | 42% | 53 | Georgia Southern |
| 12 | Tulane | North Texas | 26–29 | -3.7 | 42% | 55 | North Texas |
| 12 | Tulsa | Charlotte | 35–19 | +15.3 | 83% | 54 | Tulsa |
| 12 | UAB | UTSA | 23–31 | -8.5 | 28% | 54 | UTSA |
| 12 | UCF | Iowa State | 26–27 | -1.5 | 49% | 53 | Iowa State |
| 12 | UConn | Old Dominion | 34–18 | +15.4 | 83% | 52 | UConn |
| 12 | USC | Maryland | 40–10 | +29.7 | 95% | 50 | USC |
| 12 | Virginia | North Carolina | 27–25 | +2.4 | 57% | 51 | Virginia |
| 12 | Washington | Indiana | 20–30 | -9.5 | 31% | 50 | Indiana |
| 12 | West Virginia | Houston | 21–31 | -9.3 | 31% | 52 | Houston |
| 12 | Western Michigan | Eastern Michigan | 32–18 | +13.5 | 83% | 50 | Western Michigan |
| 12 | Wyoming | New Mexico | 20–31 | -11.2 | 21% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 13 | Akron | Buffalo | 19–32 | -13.4 | 21% | 51 | Buffalo |
| 13 | Alabama | Auburn | 34–17 | +16.8 | 87% | 51 | Alabama |
| 13 | Arizona | Arizona State | 32–21 | +11.4 | 79% | 53 | Arizona |
| 13 | Arkansas | LSU | 15–36 | -20.5 | 12% | 51 | LSU |
| 13 | Arkansas State | Troy | 28–25 | +2.9 | 59% | 52 | Arkansas State |
| 13 | BYU | Cincinnati | 32–20 | +12.7 | 83% | 52 | BYU |
| 13 | Ball State | Central Michigan | 22–28 | -5.8 | 41% | 51 | Central Michigan |
| 13 | Bowling Green | Massachusetts | 25–25 | +0.1 | 56% | 51 | Bowling Green |
| 13 | California | Pittsburgh | 21–32 | -10.9 | 28% | 53 | Pittsburgh |
| 13 | Charlotte | Navy | 22–32 | -9.9 | 28% | 54 | Navy |
| 13 | Clemson | South Carolina | 25–27 | -1.6 | 49% | 52 | South Carolina |
| 13 | Colorado | UCF | 26–26 | -0.2 | 49% | 53 | UCF |
| 13 | Delaware | Jacksonville State | 24–27 | -2.7 | 45% | 51 | Jacksonville State |
| 13 | East Carolina | Florida Atlantic | 29–26 | +2.9 | 57% | 55 | East Carolina |
| 13 | Eastern Michigan | Kent State | 28–22 | +6.0 | 64% | 51 | Eastern Michigan |
| 13 | Florida International | Sam Houston | 33–19 | +14.1 | 83% | 51 | Florida International |
| 13 | Florida State | Florida | 24–28 | -4.3 | 42% | 51 | Florida |
| 13 | Georgia | Georgia Tech | 44–8 | +36.5 | 99% | 52 | Georgia |
| 13 | Georgia Southern | Louisiana Tech | 26–27 | -1.3 | 49% | 52 | Louisiana Tech |
| 13 | Georgia State | Louisiana | 25–28 | -2.6 | 42% | 53 | Louisiana |
| 13 | Hawai'i | Sacramento State | 34–17 | +16.7 | 88% | 51 | Hawai'i |
| 13 | Houston | Baylor | 28–25 | +2.8 | 57% | 53 | Houston |
| 13 | Indiana | Purdue | 39–11 | +27.9 | 99% | 50 | Indiana |
| 13 | Iowa | Nebraska | 29–21 | +8.5 | 73% | 50 | Iowa |
| 13 | Iowa State | Kansas State | 27–25 | +2.9 | 57% | 52 | Iowa State |
| 13 | James Madison | Coastal Carolina | 38–17 | +21.8 | 93% | 55 | James Madison |
| 13 | Kentucky | Louisville | 25–26 | -0.5 | 49% | 51 | Louisville |
| 13 | Maryland | Penn State | 16–34 | -17.3 | 17% | 50 | Penn State |
| 13 | Memphis | Temple | 35–18 | +16.8 | 88% | 54 | Memphis |
| 13 | Miami | Boston College | 44–9 | +34.4 | 99% | 53 | Miami |
| 13 | Middle Tennessee | New Mexico State | 27–24 | +3.2 | 57% | 52 | Middle Tennessee |
| 13 | Missouri | Oklahoma | 29–21 | +8.0 | 69% | 51 | Missouri |
| 13 | Missouri State | Liberty | 17–34 | -17.5 | 12% | 51 | Liberty |
| 13 | New Mexico | Air Force | 33–17 | +16.2 | 83% | 50 | New Mexico |
| 13 | North Carolina | NC State | 27–24 | +2.8 | 56% | 51 | North Carolina |
| 13 | North Texas | UAB | 36–19 | +16.2 | 87% | 55 | North Texas |
| 13 | Northern Illinois | UTEP | 25–25 | -0.2 | 56% | 51 | Northern Illinois |
| 13 | Northwestern | Illinois | 27–23 | +3.6 | 64% | 50 | Northwestern |
| 13 | Ohio | Toledo | 25–25 | +0.6 | 49% | 50 | Toledo |
| 13 | Ohio State | Michigan | 33–18 | +14.9 | 83% | 50 | Ohio State |
| 13 | Oklahoma State | Kansas | 29–24 | +4.7 | 59% | 53 | Oklahoma State |
| 13 | Old Dominion | Southern Miss | 28–25 | +3.3 | 57% | 53 | Old Dominion |
| 13 | Ole Miss | Mississippi State | 35–16 | +19.6 | 88% | 51 | Ole Miss |
| 13 | Oregon | Washington | 31–20 | +11.0 | 77% | 50 | Oregon |
| 13 | Rice | Army | 20–34 | -14.1 | 21% | 53 | Army |
| 13 | Rutgers | Michigan State | 27–23 | +3.3 | 57% | 50 | Rutgers |
| 13 | San José State | North Dakota State | 20–30 | -10.7 | 28% | 50 | North Dakota State |
| 13 | South Alabama | App State | 27–26 | +1.1 | 56% | 53 | South Alabama |
| 13 | South Florida | Tulane | 31–23 | +7.8 | 66% | 53 | South Florida |
| 13 | Stanford | SMU | 16–35 | -19.1 | 12% | 52 | SMU |
| 13 | Syracuse | Notre Dame | 14–38 | -24.2 | 6% | 52 | Notre Dame |
| 13 | Texas A&M | Texas | 22–29 | -6.5 | 41% | 51 | Texas |
| 13 | Texas Tech | TCU | 32–20 | +12.7 | 83% | 52 | Texas Tech |
| 13 | UCLA | USC | 26–24 | +2.7 | 49% | 50 | USC |
| 13 | UL Monroe | Marshall | 19–35 | -15.9 | 13% | 54 | Marshall |
| 13 | UNLV | Nevada | 33–18 | +15.1 | 83% | 50 | UNLV |
| 13 | UTSA | Tulsa | 33–22 | +11.8 | 82% | 55 | UTSA |
| 13 | Utah | West Virginia | 37–17 | +20.8 | 93% | 54 | Utah |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | Tennessee | 19–32 | -12.4 | 17% | 51 | Tennessee |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | Virginia | 28–23 | +4.9 | 64% | 52 | Virginia Tech |
| 13 | Wake Forest | Duke | 29–22 | +7.0 | 64% | 51 | Wake Forest |
| 13 | Western Kentucky | Kennesaw State | 26–25 | +1.5 | 52% | 51 | Western Kentucky |
| 13 | Western Michigan | Miami (OH) | 28–23 | +5.2 | 64% | 50 | Western Michigan |
| 13 | Wisconsin | Minnesota | 27–24 | +2.9 | 57% | 50 | Wisconsin |
| 13 | Wyoming | UConn | 24–26 | -2.3 | 49% | 50 | UConn |
| 15 | Army | Navy | 30–22 | +8.1 | 66% | 52 | Army |